{"id":39757,"date":"2017-05-11T09:26:44","date_gmt":"2017-05-11T03:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.editage.cn\/insights\/%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e8%af%b4%e8%a6%81%e8%af%a5%e5%bd%93%e4%b8%aa%e5%ad%98%e7%96%91%e7%b2%be%e7%a5%9e%e7%9a%84%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%a6%e5%ae%b6"},"modified":"2026-01-07T16:25:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T10:55:03","slug":"wei-shen-me-shuo-yao-gai-dang-ge-cun-yi-jing-shen-de-ke-xue-jia-2736","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.editage.cn\/insights\/wei-shen-me-shuo-yao-gai-dang-ge-cun-yi-jing-shen-de-ke-xue-jia-2736\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u8981\u8be5\u5f53\u4e2a\u201c\u5b58\u7591\u7cbe\u795e\u201d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u672c\u6587\u7ecf Tim van der Zee \u8bb8\u53ef\u6539\u7f16\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u535a\u5ba2<\/a>\u4e0a\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8981\u8bef\u89e3\u6211\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4f46\u8eab\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u6709\u201c\u5b58\u7591\u7cbe\u795e\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8981\u6ee1\u8db3\u4e8e\u56f0\u96be\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u7b54\u6848<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u4fe1\u8868\u9762\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u4fe1\u606f<\/p>\n

\u4e5f\u4e0d\u8981\u8f7b\u6613\u76f8\u4fe1\u4f60\u8bfb\u5230\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u6240\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u597d\u50cf\u662f\u5bf9\u7684<\/p>\n

Geoff Norman \u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u4eba\u751f\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u9ed1\u6697\u65f6\u523b\uff0c\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u670d\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u5f20\u662f\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n

(a) \u6e90\u81ea\u6ca1\u6709\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff08\u6210\u4eba\u5b66\u4e60\u7406\u8bba\uff09<\/p>\n

(b) \u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u76f8\u53cd\u8bc1\u636e\u4f9d\u7136\u575a\u6301\u81ea\u6211\uff08\u5b66\u4e60\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u81ea\u6211\u68c0\u6d4b\u6280\u5de7\uff09\u6216\u662f<\/p>\n

(c) \u8d85\u8fc7\u65e2\u5b58\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u652f\u6301\u8303\u56f4<\/p>\n

\u79d1\u7814\u6587\u732e\u603b\u662f\u6709\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u9633\u6027\u7ed3\u679c\u5927\u91cf\u53d1\u8868\uff0c\u800c\u9634\u6027\u6216\u65e0\u6548\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u5728\u89d2\u843d\u751f\u7070\u5c181,2<\/sup>\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u89c1\u4ece\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bba\u6587\u88ab\u6295\u51fa\u53bb\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bba\u6587\u88ab\u53d1\u8868\u7b49\u8bb8\u591a\u5c42\u7ea7\u90fd\u5b58\u57283,4<\/sup>\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u8bf1\u4f7f\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\uff08\u6709\u610f\u6216\u65e0\u610f\u5730\uff09\u63d0\u51fa\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u505a\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u7edf\u8ba1\u68c0\u9a8c\uff0c\u4f46\u53ea\u62a5\u544a\u201c\u6210\u529f\u201d\u7684\u90a3\u51e0\u4e2a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u79f0\u4f5c p \u503c\u64cd\u7eb5 (p-hacking)5<\/sup>\u3002\u8fd8\u6709\uff0c\u79d1\u7814\u4eba\u5458\u7ecf\u5e38\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e26\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u9610\u91ca6<\/sup>\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6709\u5c06\u8fd1 28% \u7684\u5f15\u7528\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u7684\u6216\u662f\u6709\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u88ab\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u8bfb\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u68c0\u67e5\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e7<\/sup>\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u7136\u4e0d\u6b62\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u4e8b\u5148\u6ce8\u518c protocol \u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5982\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u6e90\u81ea\u6ca1\u6709\u62a5\u544a\u7ed3\u679c\u6216\u79c1\u81ea\u6dfb\u52a0\u65b0\u7ed3\u679c\u7684 protocol8<\/sup>\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6539\u53d8\u90fd\u6709\u8ff9\u53ef\u5faa\uff0c\u4f46\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u504f\u5411\u62a5\u544a\u6b63\u9762\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u9690\u85cf\u8d1f\u9762\u5f71\u54cd9<\/sup>\u3002\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u4e34\u5e8a\u8bd5\u9a8c\u8fd9\u6837\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u5df2\u53d1\u8868\u8bba\u6587\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u542b\u6709\u4e0d\u6b63\u786e\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6709 35% \u662f\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u9519\u8bef10,11,12<\/sup>\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u6709\u4ea7\u4e1a\u4ecb\u5165\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u7684 meta \u5206\u6790\u5927\u91cf\u88ab\u53d1\u8868\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u62a5\u544a\u6ce8\u610f\u4e8b\u987913<\/sup>\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u539f\u6765\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u672c\u8eab\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0cmeta \u5206\u6790\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u795e\u5947\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6539\u53d8\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662fgarbage in, garbage out \u7406\u8bba\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u7d20\u8d28\u4f4e\u4e0b\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u66f4\u8bef\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\uff1a\u4e0d\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\u7ec4\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u5e26\u51fa\u5b89\u6170\u5242\u6548\u5e94\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u6392\u9664\u7684\u89e3\u91ca14<\/sup>\u3002\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u5b9a\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u6216\uff08\u534a\uff09\u5b9e\u8bc1\u4e3b\u4e49\u8303\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ece\u66f4\u81ea\u7136\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4e0e\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u6837\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\u8c0e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u95ee\u9898\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u5217\u4e3e\uff0c\u4f46\u91cd\u70b9\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\uff1a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u4f1a\u8bf4\u8c0e\u3002\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\uff0c\u8bf4\u8c0e\u548c\u8bef\u5bfc\u4e0d\u662f\u90a3\u4e48\u5355\u7eaf\uff0c\u662f\u88ab\u8bf1\u53d1\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f3a\u70c8\u504f\u597d\u9633\u6027\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u7f8e\u597d\u613f\u671b\u7684\u53d1\u8868\u4f53\u7cfb\u3002\u9664\u4e86\u53d1\u8868\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bf1\u56e0\u5916\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5f53\u7136\u4e5f\u662f\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f83\u8be1\u5f02\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5728\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e5f\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u5b58\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u6280\u672f\u8bc1\u660e\u201d\u7684\uff0c\u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u58f0\u79f0\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u5584\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u673a\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u53bb\u505a\u3002\u4f46\u50cf\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u9886\u57df\u5c31\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u53d8\u6570\u901a\u5e38\u90fd\u662f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u4e5f\u90fd\u662f\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u6709\u6d4b\u51fa\u7ed3\u679c\u901a\u5e38\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u8bc1\u660e\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8861\u91cf\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\u8bf1\u56e0\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4e00\u591c\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u901a\u5e38\u6297\u62d2\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u594b\u6218\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u6539\u5584\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u770b\u89c1\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u5c3d\u5934\u7684\u8def\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u662f\u4e00\u6761\u6f2b\u6f2b\u957f\u8def\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73b0\u5728\u5462\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c2\u5bdf\u662f\u5426\u592a\u8fc7\u6124\u4e16\u5ac9\u4fd7\uff1f\u6216\u8bb8\u3002\u4f46\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u8be5\u5c0f\u5fc3\u3002\u6000\u7591\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u8bfb\u5230\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e5f\u8981\u6000\u7591\u6211\u4eec\u81ea\u5df1\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u3001\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u6211\u5f00\u59cb\u5199\u535a\u5ba2\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\uff1a\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u6211\u90fd\u662f\u9519\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u60f3\u8981\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u8fc7\u53bb\u9519\u5f97\u5c11\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u5f7c\u6b64\u624d\u80fd\u505a\u5230\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8981\u611a\u5f04\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u592a\u8fc7\u7b80\u5355\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u5f53\u4e2a\u6709\u201c\u5b58\u7591\u7cbe\u795e\u201d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u53d8\u6210\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Dwan, K., Gamble, C., Williamson, P. R., & Kirkham, J. J. (2013).\u00a0Systematic review of the empirical evidence of study publication bias and outcome reporting bias\u2014an updated review<\/a>.\u00a0PloS one<\/em>,\u00a08<\/em>(7).<\/li>\n
  2. Franco, A., Malhotra, N., & Simonovits, G. (2014). Publication bias in the social sciences: Unlocking the file drawer<\/a>.\u00a0Science<\/em>,\u00a0345<\/em>(6203), 1502-1505.<\/li>\n
  3. Coursol, A., & Wagner, E. E. (1986).\u00a0Effect of positive findings on submission and acceptance rates: A note on meta-analysis bias<\/a>.\u00a0Professional Psychology: Research and Practice<\/em>, 17(2), 136-137<\/li>\n
  4. Kerr, S., Tolliver, J., & Petree, D. (1977).\u00a0Manuscript characteristics which influence acceptance for management and social science journals<\/a>.\u00a0Academy of Management Journal<\/em>,\u00a020<\/em>(1), 132-141.<\/li>\n
  5. Head, M. L., Holman, L., Lanfear, R., Kahn, A. T., & Jennions, M. D. (2015).\u00a0The extent and consequences of p-hacking in science<\/a>.\u00a0PLoS Biol<\/em>,\u00a013<\/em>(3).<\/li>\n
  6. Brown, A. W., Brown, M. M. B., & Allison, D. B. (2013).\u00a0Belief beyond the evidence: using the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity to show 2 practices that distort scientific evidence<\/a>.\u00a0The American journal of clinical nutrition<\/em>,\u00a098<\/em>(5), 1298-1308.<\/li>\n
  7. Van der Zee, T. & Nonsense, B. S. (2016).\u00a0It is easy to cite a random paper as support for anything<\/a>.\u00a0Journal of Misleading Citations<\/em>,\u00a033<\/em>(2), 483-475.<\/li>\n
  8. http:\/\/compare-trials.org\/<\/a><\/li>\n
  9. Jones, C. W., Keil, L. G., Holland, W. C., Caughey, M. C., & Platts-Mills, T. F. (2015).\u00a0Comparison of registered and published outcomes in randomized controlled trials: a systematic review<\/a>.\u00a0BMC medicine<\/em>,\u00a013<\/em>(1), 1.<\/li>\n
  10. Bakker, M., & Wicherts, J. M. (2011).\u00a0The (mis) reporting of statistical results in psychology journals<\/a>.\u00a0Behavior Research Methods<\/em>,\u00a043<\/em>(3), 666-678.<\/li>\n
  11. Nuijten, M. B., Hartgerink, C. H., van Assen, M. A., Epskamp, S., & Wicherts, J. M. (2015).\u00a0The prevalence of statistical reporting errors in psychology<\/a>\u00a0(1985\u20132013).\u00a0Behavior research methods<\/em>, 1-22.<\/li>\n
  12. Nonsense, B. S., &\u00a0Van der Zee, T. (2015).\u00a0The reported thirty-five percent is incorrect, it is approximately fifteen percent<\/a>.\u00a0The Journal of False Statistics<\/em>,\u00a033<\/em>(2), 417-424.<\/li>\n
  13. Ebrahim, S., Bance, S., Athale, A., Malachowski, C., & Ioannidis, J. P. (2015).\u00a0Meta-analyses with industry involvement are massively published and report no caveats for antidepressants<\/a>.\u00a0Journal of clinical epidemiology<\/em>.<\/li>\n
  14. Boot, W. R., Simons, D. J., Stothart, C., & Stutts, C. (2013).\u00a0The pervasive problem with placebos in psychology why active control groups are not sufficient to rule out placebo effects<\/a>.\u00a0Perspectives on Psychological Science<\/em>,\u00a08<\/em>(4), 445-454.<\/li>\n
  15. Collier, D., & Mahoney, J. (1996).\u00a0Insights and pitfalls: Selection bias in qualitative research<\/a>.\u00a0World Politics<\/em>,\u00a049<\/em>(01), 56-91.<\/li>\n
  16. Golafshani, N. (2003).\u00a0Understanding reliability and validity in qualitative research<\/a>.\u00a0The qualitative report<\/em>,\u00a08<\/em>(4), 597-606.<\/li>\n
  17. Sandelowski, M. (1986).\u00a0The problem of rigor in qualitative research<\/a>.\u00a0Advances in nursing science<\/em>,\u00a08<\/em>(3), 27-37.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    \u3010\u672c\u6587\u7ecf Tim van der Zee \u8bb8\u53ef\u6539\u7f16\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u4e0a\u3002\u3011 \u4e0d\u8981\u8bef\u89e3\u6211\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u4f46\u8eab\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b 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